What is Expected Value in Poker? Expected value refers to the amount of money we can expect to win/lose on average after making a certain decision at the poker tables. It has the exact same meaning as expectation. Expected Value In Poker Expected value (EV) is a way of calculating how much we stand to make in a particular situation – it can be applied to poker or in lots of areas in real life. Table Of Contents [ show]. What is Expected Value (EV) in Poker? In short, expected value (EV) is the average result of a given play if it were made hundreds (or even thousands) of times. Let’s start with a non-poker example to understand its basic application, and then we’ll move on to a poker hand example. The Steph Curry Bet. Expected Value (EV) in Poker, Explained Poker is all about making money. Unfortunately, even if you make all the right decisions over an entire session of poker, that doesn't ensure you'll book a win. You can play great poker and still lose because poker is heavily influenced by luck - but mostly in the short term. EV (bet) = P (X)amt (X) + P (Y)amt (Y) + P (Z)amt (Z) We know that each of his possible poker hands is equally likely (2 aces left, times the specific other card means two combos each), and there.

In that case, your EV goes way down, since the likelihood of you shove getting called goes way up. For example, suppose the Villain is a tight player who would only bet on the turn with strong hands.

In this case, the odds of Villain folding diminish almost entirely, meaning you will need to hit your draw to win. Against such an opponent, calling the turn bet is a much better option than shoving.

So, how do you apply these lessons to your game? Note: Want to upgrade your poker skills? However, as a poker player, this is a classic situation where you should ALWAYS be happy and willing to flip the coin.

But, why is this? After selecting an initial monetary prize from the first bag, you then had an option of keeping your initial winnings or gambling by choosing one of two tokens from a second bag — one token which halved your winnings; another token which doubled your winnings.

Instead, they might rather want to keep a hold of their guaranteed winnings. Remember, immediate results do not matter to poker pros.

If every decision you make in a poker hand maximises your expected value, you will begin to start crushing the game with incredible results!

Yes, it will be time-consuming and perhaps difficult at the start, but as with all things, it will get easier with practice. Furthermore, your results at the table will skyrocket if you take the time away from the table to study and improve on this stuff.

For example. If we were calculating the EV of this specific situation, we would use the knowledge we have about the equity percentages to assist us in finding the outcome.

EV is not only about profiting and losing. The payouts are different too. We find that this is actually fairly close. This is not a huge difference so, if we have some uncertainty in our reads about his range, it could be a spot where a check would be preferable.

For instance, if he actually raises the 9c but we don't think he does, we may fold incorrectly and lose the pot too often, decreasing the EV of a bet below the EV of a check.

We're on the river and we hold J9dd on a board of Ad Kd 4c 7h 8s, for nothing but a busted flush draw.

Our opponent has checked to us, and we are deciding whether or not to bluff all in. Let's look at the number of each of those hands and the resulting probability that he will call a shove:.

This is a situation that can arise fairly often in poker - since most bets are for a pot-sized bet or less even in no limit games, you are typically laying yourself a price of better than However, expected value does have applications in some real-time poker situations.

This is usually going to be in special cases where either:. Hero has AJ. River is 9. These were the only two hands of significance for me during this session.

I told her I had a Are my calculations correct? Am I calculating this properly? The simple answer is that the more experience you gain, the better you become at profiling opponents and predicting how they will respond to different actions.

The main skill that supports this ability is hand reading, which is a something this course comes back to again and again. In some sense every poker decision we make is based on EV.

For those advanced players that play no limit, a look into realistic odds and implied value is an extremely important concept in tweaking your hand selection choices as well as how to play post-oak.

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8/22/ · What is Expected Value (EV) in Poker? In short, expected value (EV) is the average result of a given play if it were made hundreds (or even thousands) of times. Let’s start with a non-poker example to understand its basic application, and then we’ll move on to a poker hand example. 9/4/ · Expected Value (EV) in Poker, Explained. Poker is all about making money. Unfortunately, even if you make all the right decisions over an entire session of poker, that doesn't ensure you'll book a win. You can play great poker and still lose because poker is heavily influenced by luck - . 11/26/ · A poker decision that is expected to make money in the long run can be described as a decision with a ‘positive expected value’ or “plus-EV” (+EV) for short. Although our results will rarely conform to our expected value in the short term, good poker players realise that the expected value of a decision is far more important than short.

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